Edmonton Oilers at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Trent FredericGoals1
- Leon DraisaitlAssists1
- Trent FredericPoints1
Lightning- Nick PaulGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists1
- Jake GuentzelPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:43Jake Guentzel Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (6), Nikita Kucherov (10)1–2
- P317:28Nick Paul Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: J.J. Moser (5), Emil Lilleberg (2)1–1
- P11:32Trent Frederic Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (13)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:32Trent Frederic Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (13)EDM 1 – 0 TB · EDM 39% → 54% +15EDM 39% → 54%+15 pts
- P317:28Nick Paul Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: J.J. Moser (5), Emil Lilleberg (2)EDM 1 – 1 TB · TB 4% → 52% +48TB 4% → 52%+48 pts
- OT1:43Jake Guentzel Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (6), Nikita Kucherov (10)EDM 1 – 2 TB · TB 53% → 95% +42TB 53% → 95%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TB 61%
- ML EDM +145 / TB -170
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- TB: Elo 61.0%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- TB -154
- EDM +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 2.9 – 3.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | EDM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +7 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +77 Elo | TB 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 57.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 2.914th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +0.212th of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.7% | Shot share | 49.0%19th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3286.7% | Save percentage | 89.9%17th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 28th of 324–10 | Road vs home | 5–521st of 32 |
| 19th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 15076th of 32 |
| 8th of 321529 | Elo rating | 15336th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–16 | 7–12 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–14 | 2–12 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 5–0 |
| Overs–unders | 13–9 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 1–3 TB in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.