New Jersey Devils at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Nico HischierGoals1
- Jesper BrattAssists1
- Nico HischierPoints1
Lightning- Jake GuentzelGoals3
- Darren RaddyshAssists2
- Jake GuentzelPoints3
Scoring summary
- P37:48Jake Guentzel Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Nikita Kucherov (9), Darren Raddysh (5)1–5
- P34:49Darren Raddysh Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (8), J.J. Moser (4)1–4
- P217:47Nico Hischier Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Arseny Gritsyuk (6), Jesper Bratt (13)1–3
- P210:38Jake Guentzel Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Darren Raddysh (4), Oliver Bjorkstrand (6)0–3
- P119:38Nikita Kucherov Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (5)0–2
- P111:40Jake Guentzel Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:40Jake Guentzel Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: noneNJ 0 – 1 TB · TB 58% → 73% +15TB 58% → 73%+15 pts
- P119:38Nikita Kucherov Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (5)NJ 0 – 2 TB · TB 73% → 86% +12TB 73% → 86%+12 pts
- P210:38Jake Guentzel Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Darren Raddysh (4), Oliver Bjorkstrand (6)NJ 0 – 3 TB · TB 88% → 96% +7TB 88% → 96%+7 pts
- P217:47Nico Hischier Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Arseny Gritsyuk (6), Jesper Bratt (13)NJ 1 – 3 TB · NJ 3% → 9% +6NJ 3% → 9%+6 pts
- P34:49Darren Raddysh Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (8), J.J. Moser (4)NJ 1 – 4 TB · TB 94% → 99% +5TB 94% → 99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 59%
- ML NJ +135 / TB -155
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- TB: Elo 58.0%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- TB -143
- NJ +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.5 – 3.0 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +6 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +56 Elo | TB 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 57.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.120th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.4% | Shot share | 49.1%20th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 89.5%19th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Road vs home | 4–524th of 32 |
| 15th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 15076th of 32 |
| 12th of 321513 | Elo rating | 15297th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–10 | 6–12 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 1–12 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 5–0 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 2–5 TB in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.