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Washington Capitals at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, MNMT

Away

Capitals

11-8-2

8–4

at

Home

Canadiens

10-7-3

WSH 46%MTL 54%

You didn't pick this one.

Bell Centre · ESPN+, MNMT

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.

MTL favored WSH favored12 scoring plays
P1P2P3MTL50%WSH

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Capitals
Canadiens

Scoring summary

  • P318:34Sonny Milano Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ethen Frank (5), Hendrix Lapierre (4)8–4
  • P317:56Alex Ovechkin Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: John Carlson (15)7–4
  • P316:03Alex Ovechkin Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (15)6–4
  • P35:37Mike Matheson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (8), Lane Hutson (15)5–4
  • P217:25Sonny Milano Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ethen Frank (4), Rasmus Sandin (5)5–3
  • P215:04Nick Suzuki Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (6), Zachary Bolduc (3)4–3
  • P214:26Jakob Chychrun Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: John Carlson (14)4–2
  • P27:53Joseph Veleno Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (8), Brendan Gallagher (8)3–2
  • P23:38Ethen Frank Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (7), Hendrix Lapierre (3)3–1
  • P22:00Ethen Frank Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (10), Dylan Strome (14)2–1
  • P115:47Brendan Gallagher Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (12), Ivan Demidov (11)1–1
  • P11:00Alex Ovechkin Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (13)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P115:47Brendan Gallagher Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (12), Ivan Demidov (11)WSH 1 – 1 MTL · MTL 37% → 54% +17
  2. P22:00Ethen Frank Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (10), Dylan Strome (14)WSH 2 – 1 MTL · WSH 47% → 65% +18
  3. P215:04Nick Suzuki Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (6), Zachary Bolduc (3)WSH 4 – 3 MTL · MTL 14% → 31% +17
  4. P217:25Sonny Milano Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ethen Frank (4), Rasmus Sandin (5)WSH 5 – 3 MTL · WSH 70% → 87% +17
  5. P35:37Mike Matheson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (8), Lane Hutson (15)WSH 5 – 4 MTL · MTL 8% → 24% +17

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Canadiens 54%

Toss-upMiss
WSH 46%MTL 54%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
MTL 54%
ML WSH +110 / MTL -130
Pre-line forecast
MTL 53%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MTL 55%
Ratings vs. market
+0.3 pts
MTL: Elo 54.6%, market 54.3%
Fair odds
MTL -119
WSH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
WSH 3.1 – 3.4 MTL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorWSHMTLWhy
Team rating15231484Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Rest−30—WSH on the second night of a back-to-back
Starting goalies−12−6WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.31 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsMTL +32 EloMTL 54.6%
Market-implied ratingsMTL 52.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMTL 53.3%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastMTL 54.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Washington Capitals and Montreal Canadiens compared, with each team's league rank
WSHStatMTL
22nd of 323.0Goals scored3.38th of 32
5th of 322.6Goals allowed3.526th of 32
8th of 32+0.4Margin−0.222nd of 32
9th of 3252.5%Shot share49.0%20th of 32
5th of 3291.1%Save percentage87.7%29th of 32
19th of 324–6Last 104–619th of 32
18th of 324–5Road vs home5–521st of 32
9th of 321506Opponent Elo149129th of 32
10th of 321523Elo rating148423rd of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CapitalsCanadiens
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonWSHMTL
Puck line11–96–13
Last 105–53–7
Favorite6–81–11
Underdog5–15–2
Overs–unders9–1114–5
Overs–unders, last 105–59–1

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

WSH 7–4 MTL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.