Columbus Blue Jackets at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Zach WerenskiGoals1
- Zach WerenskiAssists1
- Zach WerenskiPoints2
Red Wings- Ben ChiarotGoals1
- Patrick KaneAssists2
- Ben ChiarotPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:50Alex DeBrincat Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Ben Chiarot (4), Patrick Kane (8)3–4
- P313:25Moritz Seider Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Emmitt Finnie (5), Nate Danielson (2)3–3
- P310:23Ben Chiarot Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (7), Moritz Seider (11)3–2
- P38:38Zach Werenski Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (4), Cole Sillinger (7)3–1
- P20:54Miles Wood Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Denton Mateychuk (4), Damon Severson (6)2–1
- P20:36Lucas Raymond Goal (7) Backhand, assists: none1–1
- P113:18Adam Fantilli Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (14), Sean Monahan (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:18Adam Fantilli Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (14), Sean Monahan (8)CBJ 1 – 0 DET · CBJ 47% → 63% +16CBJ 47% → 63%+16 pts
- P20:36Lucas Raymond Goal (7) Backhand, assists: noneCBJ 1 – 1 DET · DET 35% → 53% +18DET 35% → 53%+18 pts
- P20:54Miles Wood Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Denton Mateychuk (4), Damon Severson (6)CBJ 2 – 1 DET · CBJ 47% → 65% +18CBJ 47% → 65%+18 pts
- P313:25Moritz Seider Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Emmitt Finnie (5), Nate Danielson (2)CBJ 3 – 3 DET · DET 14% → 51% +37DET 14% → 51%+37 pts
- OT1:50Alex DeBrincat Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Ben Chiarot (4), Patrick Kane (8)CBJ 3 – 4 DET · DET 51% → 95% +44DET 51% → 95%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DET 53%
- ML CBJ +105 / DET -125
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- DET: Elo 54.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -114
- CBJ +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.2 – 3.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +7 | CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +32 Elo | DET 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.024th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.223rd of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 53.1%6th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 88.2%26th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 12th of 326–6 | Road vs home | 7–511th of 32 |
| 10th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 149424th of 32 |
| 16th of 321497 | Elo rating | 149517th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–10 | 12–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 10–4 | 10–3 |
| Overs–unders | 10–11 | 10–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 2–4 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.