New York Islanders at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Maxim ShabanovGoals2
- Casey CizikasAssists2
- Maxim ShabanovPoints3
Red WingsScoring summary
- P36:52Max Shabanov Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Casey Cizikas (4)5–0
- P25:04Bo Horvat Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Pulock (9), Emil Heineman (6)4–0
- P23:19Mathew Barzal Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: none3–0
- P114:54Max Shabanov Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Cizikas (3), Calum Ritchie (1)2–0
- P16:46Calum Ritchie Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Max Shabanov (3), Adam Boqvist (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:46Calum Ritchie Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Max Shabanov (3), Adam Boqvist (1)NYI 1 – 0 DET · NYI 47% → 62% +15NYI 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P114:54Max Shabanov Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Cizikas (3), Calum Ritchie (1)NYI 2 – 0 DET · NYI 64% → 78% +14NYI 64% → 78%+14 pts
- P23:19Mathew Barzal Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: noneNYI 3 – 0 DET · NYI 81% → 91% +10NYI 81% → 91%+10 pts
- P25:04Bo Horvat Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Pulock (9), Emil Heineman (6)NYI 4 – 0 DET · NYI 92% → 97% +5NYI 92% → 97%+5 pts
- P36:52Max Shabanov Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Casey Cizikas (4)NYI 5 – 0 DET · NYI >99% → >99% +0NYI >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DET 53%
- ML NYI +105 / DET -125
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- DET: Elo 57.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -114
- NYI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.2 – 3.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −6 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +54 Elo | DET 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 14th of 320.0 | Margin | 0.014th of 32 |
| 14th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 53.1%6th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 88.6%25th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 7th of 327–5 | Road vs home | 7–49th of 32 |
| 5th of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 149523rd of 32 |
| 25th of 321479 | Elo rating | 150214th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–10 | 12–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 10–3 |
| Overs–unders | 12–8 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 2–5 DET in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.