New York Islanders at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Emil HeinemanGoals1
- Bo HorvatAssists1
- Emil HeinemanPoints1
Mammoth- Dylan GuentherGoals1
- John MarinoAssists1
- JJ PeterkaPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:06Matthew Schaefer Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (10), Bo Horvat (11)3–2
- P313:44Jonathan Drouin Goal (3) , assists: none2–2
- P118:35Dylan Guenther Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (11), Clayton Keller (11)1–2
- P113:02JJ Peterka Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Lawson Crouse (3), John Marino (8)1–1
- P17:13Emil Heineman Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Tony DeAngelo (6), Alexander Romanov (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:13Emil Heineman Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Tony DeAngelo (6), Alexander Romanov (1)NYI 1 – 0 UTA · NYI 35% → 50% +15NYI 35% → 50%+15 pts
- P113:02JJ Peterka Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Lawson Crouse (3), John Marino (8)NYI 1 – 1 UTA · UTA 48% → 64% +16UTA 48% → 64%+16 pts
- P118:35Dylan Guenther Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (11), Clayton Keller (11)NYI 1 – 2 UTA · UTA 63% → 78% +15UTA 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P313:44Jonathan Drouin Goal (3) , assists: noneNYI 2 – 2 UTA · NYI 10% → 45% +34NYI 10% → 45%+34 pts
- OT2:06Matthew Schaefer Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (10), Bo Horvat (11)NYI 3 – 2 UTA · NYI 46% → 94% +48NYI 46% → 94%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 66%
- ML NYI +180 / UTA -215
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- UTA: Elo 63.1%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- UTA -191
- NYI +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.8 – 3.7 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NYI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +3 | NYI: David Rittich: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +93 Elo | UTA 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 68.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 67.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.29th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 55.7%3rd of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 88.0%28th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 7th of 325–4 | Road vs home | 5–12nd of 32 |
| 13th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149623rd of 32 |
| 26th of 321476 | Elo rating | 150614th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–9 | 8–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 12–5 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 1–1 UTA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.
