New York Islanders at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Kyle PalmieriGoals1
- Kyle PalmieriAssists1
- Kyle PalmieriPoints2
Stars- Jason RobertsonGoals2
- Tyler SeguinAssists2
- Jason RobertsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:01Jason Robertson Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Tyler Seguin (5), Mikko Rantanen (18)3–2
- P37:38Kyle Palmieri Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P33:12Bo Horvat Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (10), Emil Heineman (5)2–1
- P212:26Jason Robertson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (4), Miro Heiskanen (15)1–1
- P210:31Calum Ritchie Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Anthony Duclair (4), Ryan Pulock (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:31Calum Ritchie Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Anthony Duclair (4), Ryan Pulock (8)NYI 1 – 0 DAL · NYI 41% → 62% +21NYI 41% → 62%+21 pts
- P212:26Jason Robertson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (4), Miro Heiskanen (15)NYI 1 – 1 DAL · DAL 37% → 58% +21DAL 37% → 58%+21 pts
- P33:12Bo Horvat Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (10), Emil Heineman (5)NYI 2 – 1 DAL · NYI 43% → 70% +27NYI 43% → 70%+27 pts
- P37:38Kyle Palmieri Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYI 3 – 1 DAL · NYI 75% → 93% +18NYI 75% → 93%+18 pts
- P318:01Jason Robertson Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Tyler Seguin (5), Mikko Rantanen (18)NYI 3 – 2 DAL · DAL <1% → 3% +3DAL <1% → 3%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 62%
- ML NYI +155 / DAL -185
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- DAL: Elo 63.6%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -166
- NYI +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.9 – 3.6 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +1 | NYI: David Rittich: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +97 Elo | DAL 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 60.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.55th of 32 |
| 14th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 48.5%22nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.4%11th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 10th of 326–5 | Road vs home | 6–411th of 32 |
| 7th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 150510th of 32 |
| 26th of 321476 | Elo rating | 15425th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–10 | 8–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 2–11 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 6–0 |
| Overs–unders | 12–7 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 2–2 DAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.