Philadelphia Flyers at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Christian DvorakGoals1
- Owen TippettAssists1
- Christian DvorakPoints1
Stars- Jason RobertsonGoals3
- Roope HintzAssists3
- Jason RobertsonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P313:51Tyler Seguin Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Lyubushkin (4)1–5
- P310:57Christian Dvorak Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Owen Tippett (5), Jamie Drysdale (6)1–4
- P39:29Jason Robertson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (12), Mikko Rantanen (17)0–4
- P217:02Jason Robertson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (11), Esa Lindell (4)0–3
- P211:39Jason Robertson Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Tyler Seguin (3), Roope Hintz (10)0–2
- P13:48Lian Bichsel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Petrovic (4), Justin Hryckowian (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:48Lian Bichsel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Petrovic (4), Justin Hryckowian (2)PHI 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 63% → 76% +13DAL 63% → 76%+13 pts
- P211:39Jason Robertson Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Tyler Seguin (3), Roope Hintz (10)PHI 0 – 2 DAL · DAL 78% → 90% +12DAL 78% → 90%+12 pts
- P217:02Jason Robertson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (11), Esa Lindell (4)PHI 0 – 3 DAL · DAL 92% → 98% +6DAL 92% → 98%+6 pts
- P39:29Jason Robertson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (12), Mikko Rantanen (17)PHI 0 – 4 DAL · DAL >99% → >99% +0DAL >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P310:57Christian Dvorak Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Owen Tippett (5), Jamie Drysdale (6)PHI 1 – 4 DAL · PHI <1% → <1% +0PHI <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 64%
- ML PHI +165 / DAL -195
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- DAL: Elo 67.6%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- DAL -175
- PHI +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.4 – 3.1 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +10 | −1 | PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +128 Elo | DAL 67.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 65.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.38th of 32 |
| 15th of 3249.9% | Shot share | 48.1%25th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.2%12th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 11th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 5–412th of 32 |
| 15th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 15075th of 32 |
| 29th of 321465 | Elo rating | 15395th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–6 | 7–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 1–11 |
| Underdog | 9–2 | 6–0 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–3 DAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.