New York Islanders at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Emil HeinemanGoals1
- Kyle PalmieriAssists1
- Emil HeinemanPoints1
Avalanche- Brock NelsonGoals1
- Brock NelsonAssists1
- Brock NelsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:44Brock Nelson Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Brent Burns (9), Parker Kelly (4)1–4
- P319:25Martin Necas Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: none1–3
- P25:51Victor Olofsson Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Sam Malinski (9)1–2
- P24:32Ross Colton Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (19), Brock Nelson (4)1–1
- P12:05Emil Heineman Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Tony DeAngelo (7), Kyle Palmieri (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:05Emil Heineman Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Tony DeAngelo (7), Kyle Palmieri (9)NYI 1 – 0 COL · NYI 32% → 47% +14NYI 32% → 47%+14 pts
- P24:32Ross Colton Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (19), Brock Nelson (4)NYI 1 – 1 COL · COL 45% → 64% +19COL 45% → 64%+19 pts
- P25:51Victor Olofsson Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Sam Malinski (9)NYI 1 – 2 COL · COL 64% → 80% +16COL 64% → 80%+16 pts
- P319:25Martin Necas Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: noneNYI 1 – 3 COL · COL >99% → >99% +0COL >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P319:44Brock Nelson Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Brent Burns (9), Parker Kelly (4)NYI 1 – 4 COL · COL 100% → 100% +0COL 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- COL 68%
- ML NYI +200 / COL -240
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- COL: Elo 68.7%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- COL -212
- NYI +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.7 – 3.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1572 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +8 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +137 Elo | COL 68.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 66.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 67.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 4.11st of 32 |
| 21st of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.62nd of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +1.61st of 32 |
| 15th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 56.8%1st of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 90.6%7th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Road vs home | 6–23rd of 32 |
| 14th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 150117th of 32 |
| 26th of 321479 | Elo rating | 15721st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–9 | 10–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 9–8 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 12–6 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 2–2 COL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.