Columbus Blue Jackets at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Adam FantilliGoals2
- Zach WerenskiAssists3
- Adam FantilliPoints3
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals1
- John TavaresAssists1
- John TavaresPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:21Adam Fantilli Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (13)3–2
- P33:33John Tavares Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Easton Cowan (4), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (13)2–2
- P214:12Dakota Mermis Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (15)2–1
- P212:01Adam Fantilli Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (9), Zach Werenski (12)2–0
- P23:17Dmitri Voronkov Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Adam Fantilli (8), Zach Werenski (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:17Dmitri Voronkov Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Adam Fantilli (8), Zach Werenski (11)CBJ 1 – 0 TOR · CBJ 52% → 69% +18CBJ 52% → 69%+18 pts
- P212:01Adam Fantilli Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (9), Zach Werenski (12)CBJ 2 – 0 TOR · CBJ 72% → 87% +15CBJ 72% → 87%+15 pts
- P214:12Dakota Mermis Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (15)CBJ 2 – 1 TOR · TOR 13% → 28% +15TOR 13% → 28%+15 pts
- P33:33John Tavares Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Easton Cowan (4), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (13)CBJ 2 – 2 TOR · TOR 23% → 49% +25TOR 23% → 49%+25 pts
- OT4:21Adam Fantilli Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (13)CBJ 3 – 2 TOR · CBJ 50% → >99% +50CBJ 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 52%
- ML CBJ -120 / TOR +100
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- CBJ: Elo 43.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -109
- TOR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.3 – 3.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −6 | CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +45 Elo | TOR 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.54th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.730th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.225th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 47.2%27th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 88.5%26th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 17th of 325–6 | Road vs home | 8–612th of 32 |
| 11th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 148831st of 32 |
| 17th of 321494 | Elo rating | 151811th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–9 | 7–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 4–12 |
| Underdog | 10–4 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–10 | 16–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 5–2 TOR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.