St. Louis Blues at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Nathan WalkerGoals1
- Cam FowlerAssists1
- Nathan WalkerPoints1
Maple Leafs- Steven LorentzGoals1
- Oliver Ekman-LarssonAssists1
- Jake McCabePoints1
Scoring summary
- OT4:06William Nylander Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (13), John Tavares (14)2–3
- P213:18Dalibor Dvorsky Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (10), Cam Fowler (9)2–2
- P29:32Steven Lorentz Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Samuel Blais (2), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (12)1–2
- P15:36Jake McCabe Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P11:50Nathan Walker Goal (3) , assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:50Nathan Walker Goal (3) , assists: noneSTL 1 – 0 TOR · STL 50% → 64% +14STL 50% → 64%+14 pts
- P15:36Jake McCabe Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSTL 1 – 1 TOR · TOR 35% → 50% +15TOR 35% → 50%+15 pts
- P29:32Steven Lorentz Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Samuel Blais (2), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (12)STL 1 – 2 TOR · TOR 50% → 70% +20TOR 50% → 70%+20 pts
- P213:18Dalibor Dvorsky Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (10), Cam Fowler (9)STL 2 – 2 TOR · STL 29% → 50% +21STL 29% → 50%+21 pts
- OT4:06William Nylander Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (13), John Tavares (14)STL 2 – 3 TOR · TOR 50% → >99% +50TOR 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 50%
- ML STL -110 / TOR -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 57.2%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -100
- STL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.8 – 2.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −8 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +51 Elo | TOR 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 58.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.54th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.9 | Goals allowed | 3.831st of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.2 | Margin | −0.325th of 32 |
| 24th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 47.1%28th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3286.8% | Save percentage | 88.3%26th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 21st of 323–4 | Road vs home | 7–618th of 32 |
| 25th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 148931st of 32 |
| 18th of 321493 | Elo rating | 151611th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–13 | 6–13 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–11 | 4–12 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 11–8 | 16–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–2 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.