Toronto Maple Leafs at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- William NylanderGoals1
- William NylanderAssists1
- William NylanderPoints2
Blue Jackets- Zach WerenskiGoals1
- Miles WoodAssists1
- Zach WerenskiPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT4:40William Nylander Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (14), Matthew Knies (18)2–1
- P316:43Easton Cowan Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (20), John Tavares (16)1–1
- P313:30Zach Werenski Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Miles Wood (1)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P313:30Zach Werenski Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Miles Wood (1)TOR 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 50% → 87% +37CBJ 50% → 87%+37 pts
- P316:43Easton Cowan Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (20), John Tavares (16)TOR 1 – 1 CBJ · TOR 6% → 50% +44TOR 6% → 50%+44 pts
- OT4:40William Nylander Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (14), Matthew Knies (18)TOR 2 – 1 CBJ · TOR 50% → >99% +50TOR 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 50%
- ML TOR -110 / CBJ -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- CBJ: Elo 54.2%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -100
- TOR -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.3 – 3.3 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +8 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +29 Elo | CBJ 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 57.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.022nd of 32 |
| 30th of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.326th of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.3% | Shot share | 49.2%17th of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 90.0%17th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 30th of 321–6 | Road vs home | 5–413th of 32 |
| 31st of 321487 | Opponent Elo | 15069th of 32 |
| 11th of 321511 | Elo rating | 149118th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–14 | 12–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–12 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 11–5 |
| Overs–unders | 17–5 | 11–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–6 CBJ in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.