Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- William NylanderGoals1
- William NylanderAssists1
- William NylanderPoints2
Canadiens- Josh AndersonGoals2
- Mike MathesonAssists2
- Josh AndersonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:50Josh Anderson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (10), Jake Evans (4)2–5
- P314:55William Nylander Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (14), Matias Maccelli (5)2–4
- P217:19Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Easton Cowan (5), William Nylander (19)1–4
- P213:11Josh Anderson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Florian Xhekaj (1)0–4
- P24:09Noah Dobson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (13), Juraj Slafkovský (4)0–3
- P113:33Noah Dobson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (9), Ivan Demidov (12)0–2
- P112:11Lane Hutson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (18), Cole Caufield (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:11Lane Hutson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (18), Cole Caufield (9)TOR 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 56% → 71% +15MTL 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P113:33Noah Dobson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (9), Ivan Demidov (12)TOR 0 – 2 MTL · MTL 71% → 83% +12MTL 71% → 83%+12 pts
- P24:09Noah Dobson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (13), Juraj Slafkovský (4)TOR 0 – 3 MTL · MTL 86% → 94% +8MTL 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P213:11Josh Anderson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Florian Xhekaj (1)TOR 0 – 4 MTL · MTL 96% → 99% +3MTL 96% → 99%+3 pts
- P217:19Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Easton Cowan (5), William Nylander (19)TOR 1 – 4 MTL · TOR <1% → 3% +2TOR <1% → 3%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 56%
- ML TOR +120 / MTL -140
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- MTL: Elo 50.5%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- MTL -128
- TOR +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.1 – 3.4 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +1 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +3 Elo | MTL 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 56.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.731st of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.427th of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.3% | Shot share | 48.8%19th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 87.2%31st of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 30th of 321–5 | Road vs home | 5–624th of 32 |
| 31st of 321487 | Opponent Elo | 149229th of 32 |
| 11th of 321516 | Elo rating | 147826th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–13 | 6–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–12 | 1–12 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 16–5 | 15–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 7–1 MTL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.