Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Morgan RiellyGoals1
- Oliver Ekman-LarssonAssists1
- Morgan RiellyPoints1
Capitals- Tom WilsonGoals1
- Tom WilsonAssists1
- Tom WilsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:58Tom Wilson Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: none2–4
- P316:04Jakob Chychrun Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Leonard (7), Connor McMichael (10)2–3
- P313:16Anthony Beauvillier Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (12), Dylan Strome (16)2–2
- P213:18Connor McMichael Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Aliaksei Protas (9), Tom Wilson (13)2–1
- P22:49Matthew Knies Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (6), Troy Stecher (1)2–0
- P13:07Morgan Rielly Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (15), Nicolas Roy (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:07Morgan Rielly Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (15), Nicolas Roy (4)TOR 1 – 0 WSH · TOR 40% → 54% +15TOR 40% → 54%+15 pts
- P22:49Matthew Knies Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (6), Troy Stecher (1)TOR 2 – 0 WSH · TOR 60% → 76% +16TOR 60% → 76%+16 pts
- P213:18Connor McMichael Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Aliaksei Protas (9), Tom Wilson (13)TOR 2 – 1 WSH · WSH 18% → 36% +18WSH 18% → 36%+18 pts
- P313:16Anthony Beauvillier Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (12), Dylan Strome (16)TOR 2 – 2 WSH · WSH 16% → 54% +38WSH 16% → 54%+38 pts
- P316:04Jakob Chychrun Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Leonard (7), Connor McMichael (10)TOR 2 – 3 WSH · WSH 53% → 93% +40WSH 53% → 93%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 61%
- ML TOR +145 / WSH -170
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- WSH: Elo 58.6%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- WSH -154
- TOR +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.9 – 3.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +5 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +60 Elo | WSH 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 59.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.36th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.86th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.64th of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.0% | Shot share | 53.8%5th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 90.2%11th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 30th of 322–6 | Road vs home | 8–69th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321486 | Opponent Elo | 15092nd of 32 |
| 12th of 321514 | Elo rating | 15307th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–15 | 13–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–13 | 7–10 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders | 17–6 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–2 WSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.