Winnipeg Jets at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Gabriel VilardiGoals2
- Kyle ConnorAssists3
- Kyle ConnorPoints3
Capitals- Jakob ChychrunGoals1
- Sonny MilanoAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:11Mark Scheifele Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (17), Dylan DeMelo (9)3–4
- P35:25Connor McMichael Goal (3) Backhand, assists: none2–4
- P25:22Alex Ovechkin Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Roy (4), Anthony Beauvillier (3)2–3
- P21:24Gabriel Vilardi Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Josh Morrissey (18), Kyle Connor (16)2–2
- P119:38Gabriel Vilardi Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (15)1–2
- P114:21Jakob Chychrun Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Sonny Milano (2), Ethen Frank (6)0–2
- P16:38John Carlson Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:38John Carlson Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (12)WPG 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 57% → 71% +14WSH 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P119:38Gabriel Vilardi Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (15)WPG 1 – 2 WSH · WPG 15% → 28% +13WPG 15% → 28%+13 pts
- P21:24Gabriel Vilardi Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Josh Morrissey (18), Kyle Connor (16)WPG 2 – 2 WSH · WPG 27% → 44% +17WPG 27% → 44%+17 pts
- P25:22Alex Ovechkin Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Roy (4), Anthony Beauvillier (3)WPG 2 – 3 WSH · WSH 55% → 73% +18WSH 55% → 73%+18 pts
- P35:25Connor McMichael Goal (3) Backhand, assists: noneWPG 2 – 4 WSH · WSH 80% → 94% +15WSH 80% → 94%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 57%
- ML WPG +125 / WSH -145
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- WSH: Elo 51.8%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- WSH -133
- WPG +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 3.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | −13 | WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +12 Elo | WSH 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 58.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.64th of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.6% | Shot share | 53.4%5th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 90.4%13th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Road vs home | 7–618th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321486 | Opponent Elo | 15075th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321549 | Elo rating | 15287th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–12 | 13–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–11 | 7–9 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders | 12–9 | 11–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 3–1 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.