Minnesota Wild at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Danila YurovGoals1
- Yakov TreninAssists1
- Kirill KaprizovPoints1
JetsScoring summary
- P36:29Kirill Kaprizov Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Middleton (4), Mats Zuccarello (7)3–0
- P218:12Brock Faber Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (11)2–0
- P28:23Danila Yurov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Yakov Trenin (4)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:23Danila Yurov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Yakov Trenin (4)MIN 1 – 0 WPG · MIN 47% → 66% +20MIN 47% → 66%+20 pts
- P218:12Brock Faber Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (11)MIN 2 – 0 WPG · MIN 71% → 87% +17MIN 71% → 87%+17 pts
- P36:29Kirill Kaprizov Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Middleton (4), Mats Zuccarello (7)MIN 3 – 0 WPG · MIN 93% → 99% +6MIN 93% → 99%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 54%
- ML MIN +110 / WPG -130
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.5 pts
- WPG: Elo 59.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- WPG -119
- MIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.6 – 2.9 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −12 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.31 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +69 Elo | WPG 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 58.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.46th of 32 |
| 13th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.85th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.63rd of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.5% | Shot share | 48.4%22nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 90.9%5th of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–5 | Road vs home | 6–411th of 32 |
| 27th of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 148432nd of 32 |
| 15th of 321500 | Elo rating | 15542nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–9 | 9–11 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 8–10 |
| Underdog | 10–3 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 11–11 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 0–8 WPG in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.