St. Louis Blues at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Dylan HollowayGoals1
- Dylan HollowayAssists2
- Dylan HollowayPoints3
Canadiens- Noah DobsonGoals1
- Noah DobsonAssists1
- Noah DobsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:15Noah Dobson Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (12), Ivan Demidov (16)4–3
- P310:24Brayden Schenn Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (9), Mathieu Joseph (6)4–2
- P21:05Pavel Buchnevich Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (14), Justin Faulk (8)3–2
- P20:26Dylan Holloway Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Brayden Schenn (7), Colton Parayko (9)2–2
- P119:03Cole Caufield Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (24), Noah Dobson (14)1–2
- P112:20Lane Hutson Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Zachary Bolduc (7), Jared Davidson (1)1–1
- P18:57Brayden Schenn Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (11), Dylan Holloway (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:57Brayden Schenn Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (11), Dylan Holloway (8)STL 1 – 0 MTL · STL 46% → 62% +16STL 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P112:20Lane Hutson Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Zachary Bolduc (7), Jared Davidson (1)STL 1 – 1 MTL · MTL 38% → 54% +16MTL 38% → 54%+16 pts
- P119:03Cole Caufield Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (24), Noah Dobson (14)STL 1 – 2 MTL · MTL 54% → 70% +17MTL 54% → 70%+17 pts
- P20:26Dylan Holloway Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Brayden Schenn (7), Colton Parayko (9)STL 2 – 2 MTL · STL 30% → 47% +17STL 30% → 47%+17 pts
- P21:05Pavel Buchnevich Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (14), Justin Faulk (8)STL 3 – 2 MTL · STL 47% → 64% +18STL 47% → 64%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 54%
- ML STL +110 / MTL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- MTL: Elo 56.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MTL -119
- STL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.6 – 2.9 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | MTL and STL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +3 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +42 Elo | MTL 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.38th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.530th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.0 | Margin | −0.223rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3247.9% | Shot share | 47.8%24th of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 88.0%29th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 32 |
| 29th of 325–9 | Road vs home | 7–718th of 32 |
| 26th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 150213th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321484 | Elo rating | 148920th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–16 | 11–16 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–14 | 2–12 |
| Underdog | 12–2 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders | 13–16 | 19–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 3–1 MTL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.