Ottawa Senators at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Shane PintoGoals1
- Michael AmadioAssists1
- Shane PintoPoints1
Blues- Jordan KyrouGoals1
- Robert ThomasAssists1
- Pavel BuchnevichPoints1
Scoring summary
- P39:19Matthew Kessel Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Dylan Holloway (6), Pius Suter (6)3–4
- P37:31David Perron Goal (3) Backhand, assists: none3–3
- P35:33Pavel Buchnevich Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (5), Philip Broberg (7)2–3
- P32:01Jordan Kyrou Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Jake Neighbours (3), Robert Thomas (11)2–2
- P218:26Fabian Zetterlund Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (15), Brady Tkachuk (4)2–1
- P210:11Shane Pinto Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolas Matinpalo (4), Michael Amadio (4)1–1
- P27:59Oskar Sundqvist Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (5), Nathan Walker (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P218:26Fabian Zetterlund Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (15), Brady Tkachuk (4)OTT 2 – 1 STL · OTT 51% → 73% +23OTT 51% → 73%+23 pts
- P32:01Jordan Kyrou Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Jake Neighbours (3), Robert Thomas (11)OTT 2 – 2 STL · STL 25% → 49% +25STL 25% → 49%+25 pts
- P35:33Pavel Buchnevich Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (5), Philip Broberg (7)OTT 2 – 3 STL · STL 49% → 77% +27STL 49% → 77%+27 pts
- P37:31David Perron Goal (3) Backhand, assists: noneOTT 3 – 3 STL · OTT 22% → 50% +29OTT 22% → 50%+29 pts
- P39:19Matthew Kessel Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Dylan Holloway (6), Pius Suter (6)OTT 3 – 4 STL · STL 50% → 80% +31STL 50% → 80%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 51%
- ML OTT -115 / STL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 44%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- OTT: Elo 48.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- OTT -104
- STL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.8 – 2.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +2 | OTT: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +10 Elo | STL 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 56.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.730th of 32 |
| 17th of 320.0 | Margin | −1.031st of 32 |
| 12th of 3251.0% | Shot share | 47.8%25th of 32 |
| 27th of 3287.9% | Save percentage | 87.6%30th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 32 |
| 12th of 326–6 | Road vs home | 3–930th of 32 |
| 28th of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 149424th of 32 |
| 15th of 321506 | Elo rating | 148718th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–14 | 10–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–13 | 1–12 |
| Underdog | 7–1 | 9–2 |
| Overs–unders | 13–10 | 11–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 1–3 STL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.