St. Louis Blues at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Cam FowlerGoals1
- Cam FowlerAssists1
- Cam FowlerPoints2
Devils- Nico HischierGoals1
- Nico HischierAssists2
- Nico HischierPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT2:58Simon Nemec Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (13), Paul Cotter (3)2–3
- P28:49Nico Hischier Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (11), Luke Hughes (13)2–2
- P114:37Robert Thomas Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (10), Pavel Buchnevich (8)2–1
- P111:02Timo Meier Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Nico Hischier (12), Dougie Hamilton (4)1–1
- P12:16Cam Fowler Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan Walker (5), Logan Mailloux (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:16Cam Fowler Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan Walker (5), Logan Mailloux (1)STL 1 – 0 NJ · STL 45% → 60% +15STL 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P111:02Timo Meier Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Nico Hischier (12), Dougie Hamilton (4)STL 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 39% → 55% +16NJ 39% → 55%+16 pts
- P114:37Robert Thomas Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (10), Pavel Buchnevich (8)STL 2 – 1 NJ · STL 45% → 62% +17STL 45% → 62%+17 pts
- P28:49Nico Hischier Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (11), Luke Hughes (13)STL 2 – 2 NJ · NJ 34% → 54% +20NJ 34% → 54%+20 pts
- OT2:58Simon Nemec Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (13), Paul Cotter (3)STL 2 – 3 NJ · NJ 51% → 98% +47NJ 51% → 98%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 55%
- ML STL +115 / NJ -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- NJ: Elo 56.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NJ -124
- STL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.6 – 2.9 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −1 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +46 Elo | NJ 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.112th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.018th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−1.0 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 25th of 3248.0% | Shot share | 51.2%11th of 32 |
| 30th of 3287.5% | Save percentage | 89.5%20th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 27th of 324–7 | Road vs home | 8–11st of 32 |
| 25th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 15067th of 32 |
| 19th of 321489 | Elo rating | 150414th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–14 | 9–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–12 | 3–10 |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–12 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–2 NJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.