St. Louis Blues at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Pius SuterGoals1
- Jordan KyrouAssists1
- Pius SuterPoints1
Islanders- Anders LeeGoals1
- Kyle PalmieriAssists1
- Anders LeePoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:40Anders Lee Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Kyle Palmieri (11), Mathew Barzal (11)2–1
- P217:51Pius Suter Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Dylan Holloway (5), Jordan Kyrou (7)2–0
- P10:42Brayden Schenn Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (6), Dalibor Dvorsky (1)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:42Brayden Schenn Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (6), Dalibor Dvorsky (1)STL 1 – 0 NYI · STL 44% → 58% +15STL 44% → 58%+15 pts
- P217:51Pius Suter Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Dylan Holloway (5), Jordan Kyrou (7)STL 2 – 0 NYI · STL 69% → 87% +17STL 69% → 87%+17 pts
- P316:40Anders Lee Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Kyle Palmieri (11), Mathew Barzal (11)STL 2 – 1 NYI · NYI <1% → 7% +6NYI <1% → 7%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 56%
- ML STL +120 / NYI -140
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- NYI: Elo 54.7%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- NYI -128
- STL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.6 – 2.9 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +1 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +32 Elo | NYI 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.9 | Goals allowed | 3.017th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.1 | Margin | +0.210th of 32 |
| 25th of 3248.2% | Shot share | 49.5%16th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.1% | Save percentage | 90.2%12th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 26th of 323–6 | Road vs home | 4–421st of 32 |
| 26th of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 15085th of 32 |
| 19th of 321489 | Elo rating | 148621st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–14 | 11–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–12 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–10 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–2 NYI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.