St. Louis Blues at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Nathan WalkerAssists1
- Nathan WalkerPoints1
Flyers- Travis SanheimGoals1
- Travis KonecnyAssists2
- Travis KonecnyPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:51Travis Sanheim Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (11), Sean Couturier (9)2–3
- P311:49Tyson Foerster Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Emil Andrae (3), Travis Konecny (10)2–2
- P217:57Rodrigo Abols Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (6), Trevor Zegras (14)2–1
- P112:08Justin Faulk Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (2), Jordan Kyrou (6)2–0
- P15:31Justin Faulk Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (9), Nathan Walker (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:31Justin Faulk Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (9), Nathan Walker (4)STL 1 – 0 PHI · STL 47% → 62% +15STL 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P112:08Justin Faulk Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (2), Jordan Kyrou (6)STL 2 – 0 PHI · STL 63% → 77% +14STL 63% → 77%+14 pts
- P217:57Rodrigo Abols Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (6), Trevor Zegras (14)STL 2 – 1 PHI · PHI 12% → 29% +17PHI 12% → 29%+17 pts
- P311:49Tyson Foerster Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Emil Andrae (3), Travis Konecny (10)STL 2 – 2 PHI · PHI 17% → 51% +34PHI 17% → 51%+34 pts
- OT3:51Travis Sanheim Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (11), Sean Couturier (9)STL 2 – 3 PHI · PHI 50% → >99% +49PHI 50% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 53%
- ML STL +105 / PHI -125
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 53.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.7 – 2.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +7 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +21 Elo | PHI 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.9 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.1 | Margin | 0.014th of 32 |
| 25th of 3248.0% | Shot share | 49.6%16th of 32 |
| 31st of 3287.0% | Save percentage | 89.1%22nd of 32 |
| 29th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323–5 | Road vs home | 6–516th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 150314th of 32 |
| 19th of 321491 | Elo rating | 146229th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–14 | 11–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–12 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 9–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–9 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 1–4 PHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.