New Jersey Devils at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors FLA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils
Panthers- Sam ReinhartGoals1
- Gustav ForslingAssists1
- Sam ReinhartPoints1
Scoring summary
- P112:58Sam Reinhart Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Forsling (10)0–1
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:58Sam Reinhart Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Forsling (10)NJ 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 57% → 72% +15FLA 57% → 72%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 58%
- ML NJ +130 / FLA -150
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- FLA: Elo 61.9%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- FLA -138
- NJ +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.5 – 3.0 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +6 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +84 Elo | FLA 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 59.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.120th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.119th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.4% | Shot share | 53.6%5th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 88.8%24th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 11th of 326–5 | Road vs home | 7–35th of 32 |
| 10th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 149327th of 32 |
| 12th of 321508 | Elo rating | 15523rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–11 | 6–13 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 4–12 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–9 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 4–3 FLA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 7.