Vancouver Canucks at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Elias PetterssonGoals2
- Evander KaneAssists2
- Elias PetterssonPoints2
Panthers- Seth JonesGoals2
- Sam ReinhartAssists3
- Sam ReinhartPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:14Brad Marchand Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–8
- P38:19Seth Jones Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (6), Carter Verhaeghe (8)5–7
- P34:02Sam Bennett Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Niko Mikkola (4), Uvis Balinskis (1)5–6
- P33:14Filip Hronek Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Max Sasson (1), Evander Kane (8)5–5
- P31:24Elias Pettersson Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (3), Tom Willander (3)4–5
- P27:55Elias Pettersson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Evander Kane (7), Quinn Hughes (19)3–5
- P27:17Anton Lundell Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (10), Aaron Ekblad (4)2–5
- P26:10Evan Rodrigues Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (5), Jesper Boqvist (2)2–4
- P22:23Luke Kunin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Gregor (1), Gustav Forsling (9)2–3
- P119:52Seth Jones Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (4), Sergei Bobrovsky (1)2–2
- P115:50A.J. Greer Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (7), Sam Bennett (3)2–1
- P115:14Jake DeBrusk Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (2), Quinn Hughes (18)2–0
- P114:50Drew O'Connor Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Myers (5), Quinn Hughes (17)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:14Jake DeBrusk Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (2), Quinn Hughes (18)VAN 2 – 0 FLA · VAN 48% → 65% +16VAN 48% → 65%+16 pts
- P115:50A.J. Greer Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (7), Sam Bennett (3)VAN 2 – 1 FLA · FLA 35% → 51% +17FLA 35% → 51%+17 pts
- P119:52Seth Jones Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (4), Sergei Bobrovsky (1)VAN 2 – 2 FLA · FLA 50% → 67% +17FLA 50% → 67%+17 pts
- P33:14Filip Hronek Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Max Sasson (1), Evander Kane (8)VAN 5 – 5 FLA · VAN 16% → 39% +22VAN 16% → 39%+22 pts
- P34:02Sam Bennett Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Niko Mikkola (4), Uvis Balinskis (1)VAN 5 – 6 FLA · FLA 61% → 84% +23FLA 61% → 84%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 70%
- ML VAN +225 / FLA -275
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- FLA: Elo 71.1%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- FLA -238
- VAN +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.1 – 3.4 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | VAN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −21 | +8 | VAN: Jiri Patera: team allows 0.52 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +156 Elo | FLA 71.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 67.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 68.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.828th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.223rd of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.5% | Shot share | 52.4%9th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.5%19th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 11th of 326–5 | Road vs home | 6–36th of 32 |
| 16th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149229th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321487 | Elo rating | 15493rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–8 | 5–13 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 3–12 |
| Underdog | 11–4 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 15–5 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 4–0 FLA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.