St. Louis Blues at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Dylan HollowayGoals1
- Pavel BuchnevichAssists1
- Dylan HollowayPoints1
Rangers- Vincent TrocheckGoals1
- Vladislav GavrikovAssists2
- Vladislav GavrikovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:45Brayden Schenn Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (7), Justin Faulk (7)2–3
- P38:56Adam Edstrom Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (7), Adam Fox (18)1–3
- P30:40Alexis Lafrenière Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (6), Will Cuylle (7)1–2
- P210:06Vincent Trocheck Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonny Brodzinski (2), Adam Fox (17)1–1
- P117:36Dylan Holloway Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (6), Colton Parayko (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:36Dylan Holloway Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (6), Colton Parayko (7)STL 1 – 0 NYR · STL 45% → 62% +17STL 45% → 62%+17 pts
- P210:06Vincent Trocheck Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonny Brodzinski (2), Adam Fox (17)STL 1 – 1 NYR · NYR 34% → 54% +20NYR 34% → 54%+20 pts
- P30:40Alexis Lafrenière Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (6), Will Cuylle (7)STL 1 – 2 NYR · NYR 54% → 77% +23NYR 54% → 77%+23 pts
- P38:56Adam Edstrom Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (7), Adam Fox (18)STL 1 – 3 NYR · NYR 82% → 96% +14NYR 82% → 96%+14 pts
- P318:45Brayden Schenn Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (7), Justin Faulk (7)STL 2 – 3 NYR · STL <1% → <1% +1STL <1% → <1%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 56%
- ML STL +120 / NYR -140
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- NYR: Elo 57.2%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- NYR -128
- STL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.6 – 2.9 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −2 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +51 Elo | NYR 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 60.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.530th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 2.72nd of 32 |
| 31st of 32−1.0 | Margin | −0.119th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 48.1%24th of 32 |
| 29th of 3287.6% | Save percentage | 91.8%1st of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 25th of 324–6 | Road vs home | 1–832nd of 32 |
| 25th of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 32 |
| 19th of 321491 | Elo rating | 150314th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–14 | 12–11 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–12 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–11 | 8–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 3–1 NYR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.