New York Rangers at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- J.T. MillerGoals2
- Mika ZibanejadAssists2
- J.T. MillerPoints2
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals2
- Martin NecasAssists3
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:47Ross Colton Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (5)3–6
- P318:35Cale Makar Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Drury (5)3–5
- P310:48Nathan MacKinnon Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Cale Makar (20), Martin Necas (15)3–4
- P310:18J.T. Miller Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fox (15), Mika Zibanejad (7)3–3
- P32:36Brock Nelson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Malinski (10), Scott Wedgewood (1)2–3
- P217:15Cale Makar Goal (7) Wrap-around, assists: Martin Necas (14), Nathan MacKinnon (20)2–2
- P23:58Adam Edstrom Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Sam Carrick (5), Braden Schneider (4)2–1
- P119:33Nathan MacKinnon Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Martin Necas (13), Samuel Girard (2)1–1
- P12:26J.T. Miller Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Mika Zibanejad (6), Adam Fox (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:58Adam Edstrom Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Sam Carrick (5), Braden Schneider (4)NYR 2 – 1 COL · NYR 40% → 58% +19NYR 40% → 58%+19 pts
- P217:15Cale Makar Goal (7) Wrap-around, assists: Martin Necas (14), Nathan MacKinnon (20)NYR 2 – 2 COL · COL 35% → 58% +23COL 35% → 58%+23 pts
- P32:36Brock Nelson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Malinski (10), Scott Wedgewood (1)NYR 2 – 3 COL · COL 57% → 80% +23COL 57% → 80%+23 pts
- P310:18J.T. Miller Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fox (15), Mika Zibanejad (7)NYR 3 – 3 COL · NYR 15% → 45% +30NYR 15% → 45%+30 pts
- P310:48Nathan MacKinnon Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Cale Makar (20), Martin Necas (15)NYR 3 – 4 COL · COL 55% → 86% +30COL 55% → 86%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 63%
- ML NYR +160 / COL -190
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- COL: Elo 65.3%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- COL -170
- NYR +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.9 – 3.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1575 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +9 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +110 Elo | COL 65.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 62.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 4.11st of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 2.51st of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | +1.61st of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 56.4%2nd of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.1% | Save percentage | 90.9%5th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 1st of 329–3 | Road vs home | 7–23rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 32 |
| 12th of 321508 | Elo rating | 15751st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–10 | 11–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | 10–8 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 7–14 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 2–2 COL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.