New York Rangers at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Vincent TrocheckGoals1
- Will CuylleAssists1
- Vincent TrocheckPoints1
Golden Knights- Ben HuttonGoals1
- Tomas HertlAssists2
- Tomas HertlPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:17Vincent Trocheck Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (14), J.T. Miller (6)2–3
- P37:18Shea Theodore Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (3), Colton Sissons (2)1–3
- P28:56Jonny Brodzinski Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (6)1–2
- P23:23Ben Hutton Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (4), Tomas Hertl (9)0–2
- P111:40Braeden Bowman Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (8), Mitch Marner (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:40Braeden Bowman Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (8), Mitch Marner (17)NYR 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 56% → 71% +15VGK 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P23:23Ben Hutton Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (4), Tomas Hertl (9)NYR 0 – 2 VGK · VGK 72% → 85% +13VGK 72% → 85%+13 pts
- P28:56Jonny Brodzinski Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (6)NYR 1 – 2 VGK · NYR 13% → 27% +14NYR 13% → 27%+14 pts
- P37:18Shea Theodore Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (3), Colton Sissons (2)NYR 1 – 3 VGK · VGK 81% → 95% +14VGK 81% → 95%+14 pts
- P317:17Vincent Trocheck Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (14), J.T. Miller (6)NYR 2 – 3 VGK · NYR <1% → 4% +4NYR <1% → 4%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 56%
- ML NYR +120 / VGK -140
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- VGK: Elo 56.7%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- VGK -128
- NYR +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.6 – 2.9 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −5 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · VGK: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +47 Elo | VGK 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 57.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.29th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 53.8%4th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.3% | Save percentage | 89.0%23rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–2 | Road vs home | 4–625th of 32 |
| 26th of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 15068th of 32 |
| 12th of 321510 | Elo rating | 15278th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–10 | 6–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | 3–11 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–13 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 2–2 VGK in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.