New York Rangers at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Vladislav GavrikovGoals1
- Vladislav GavrikovAssists1
- Vladislav GavrikovPoints2
Mammoth- Nick DeSimoneGoals1
- Kailer YamamotoAssists1
- Clayton KellerPoints1
Scoring summary
- P37:32Nick DeSimone Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: none2–3
- P211:15Clayton Keller Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Kailer Yamamoto (2)2–2
- P28:07Artemi Panarin Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (4), Vladislav Gavrikov (5)2–1
- P115:19Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fox (16), Mika Zibanejad (8)1–1
- P110:08JJ Peterka Goal (9) Poke, assists: Nate Schmidt (7), Jack McBain (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:08JJ Peterka Goal (9) Poke, assists: Nate Schmidt (7), Jack McBain (3)NYR 0 – 1 UTA · UTA 56% → 71% +15UTA 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P115:19Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fox (16), Mika Zibanejad (8)NYR 1 – 1 UTA · NYR 29% → 45% +16NYR 29% → 45%+16 pts
- P28:07Artemi Panarin Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (4), Vladislav Gavrikov (5)NYR 2 – 1 UTA · NYR 45% → 65% +20NYR 45% → 65%+20 pts
- P211:15Clayton Keller Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Kailer Yamamoto (2)NYR 2 – 2 UTA · UTA 34% → 54% +21UTA 34% → 54%+21 pts
- P37:32Nick DeSimone Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: noneNYR 2 – 3 UTA · UTA 53% → 81% +28UTA 53% → 81%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 56%
- ML NYR +120 / UTA -140
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- UTA: Elo 53.4%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- UTA -128
- NYR +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.6 – 2.9 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +3 | NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +23 Elo | UTA 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.119th of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.5% | Shot share | 54.5%3rd of 32 |
| 1st of 3291.9% | Save percentage | 87.8%28th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 32 |
| 2nd of 329–4 | Road vs home | 5–37th of 32 |
| 19th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149424th of 32 |
| 13th of 321505 | Elo rating | 149318th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–11 | 9–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | 3–9 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–14 | 9–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 1–1 UTA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.
