Vegas Golden Knights at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Jack EichelGoals2
- Shea TheodoreAssists3
- Jack EichelPoints3
Mammoth- Nate SchmidtGoals1
- Clayton KellerAssists1
- Nate SchmidtPoints1
Scoring summary
- P30:45Braeden Bowman Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jack Eichel (17), Shea Theodore (10)4–1
- P216:51Jack Eichel Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Braeden Bowman (1), Shea Theodore (9)3–1
- P26:38Nate Schmidt Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ian Cole (7), Clayton Keller (12)2–1
- P23:28Ben Hutton Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Reinhardt (2)2–0
- P23:09Jack Eichel Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (5), Shea Theodore (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:09Jack Eichel Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (5), Shea Theodore (8)VGK 1 – 0 UTA · VGK 50% → 68% +18VGK 50% → 68%+18 pts
- P23:28Ben Hutton Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Reinhardt (2)VGK 2 – 0 UTA · VGK 68% → 83% +15VGK 68% → 83%+15 pts
- P26:38Nate Schmidt Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ian Cole (7), Clayton Keller (12)VGK 2 – 1 UTA · UTA 16% → 31% +15UTA 16% → 31%+15 pts
- P216:51Jack Eichel Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Braeden Bowman (1), Shea Theodore (9)VGK 3 – 1 UTA · VGK 72% → 88% +16VGK 72% → 88%+16 pts
- P30:45Braeden Bowman Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jack Eichel (17), Shea Theodore (10)VGK 4 – 1 UTA · VGK 90% → 97% +7VGK 90% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 50%
- ML VGK -110 / UTA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- UTA: Elo 51.4%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- UTA -100
- VGK -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.8 – 2.8 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +4 | VGK: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +9 Elo | UTA 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 52.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.018th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 4th of 3254.0% | Shot share | 55.1%3rd of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 87.8%28th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 32 |
| 11th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 5–25th of 32 |
| 8th of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 149030th of 32 |
| 7th of 321529 | Elo rating | 149815th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–13 | 9–11 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 3–12 | 3–9 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–10 | 9–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 2–1 UTA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.
