Utah Mammoth at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- JJ PeterkaGoals2
- Lawson CrouseAssists1
- JJ PeterkaPoints2
Sharks- Macklin CelebriniGoals3
- Will SmithAssists2
- Macklin CelebriniPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT2:52Macklin Celebrini Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (8), Will Smith (12)2–3
- P317:09JJ Peterka Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Nate Schmidt (6)2–2
- P39:25JJ Peterka Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Lawson Crouse (4), Logan Cooley (7)1–2
- P15:58Macklin Celebrini Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Collin Graf (5)0–2
- P11:47Macklin Celebrini Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (11), Philipp Kurashev (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:47Macklin Celebrini Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (11), Philipp Kurashev (6)UTA 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 45% → 59% +15SJ 45% → 59%+15 pts
- P15:58Macklin Celebrini Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Collin Graf (5)UTA 0 – 2 SJ · SJ 60% → 74% +14SJ 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P39:25JJ Peterka Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Lawson Crouse (4), Logan Cooley (7)UTA 1 – 2 SJ · UTA 5% → 21% +16UTA 5% → 21%+16 pts
- P317:09JJ Peterka Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Nate Schmidt (6)UTA 2 – 2 SJ · UTA 5% → 51% +46UTA 5% → 51%+46 pts
- OT2:52Macklin Celebrini Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (8), Will Smith (12)UTA 2 – 3 SJ · SJ 49% → 97% +48SJ 49% → 97%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 55%
- ML UTA -135 / SJ +115
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- UTA: Elo 51.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- UTA -124
- SJ +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 3.4 – 3.1 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1401 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | UTA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −14 | +9 | UTA: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.34 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +11 Elo | UTA 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.324th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3255.2% | Shot share | 43.4%32nd of 32 |
| 28th of 3287.9% | Save percentage | 90.3%10th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325–7 | Road vs home | 4–625th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 15093rd of 32 |
| 16th of 321500 | Elo rating | 140132nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–10 | 13–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | — |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders | 9–10 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 3–1 SJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.
