Utah Mammoth at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Logan CooleyGoals1
- John MarinoAssists1
- Dylan GuentherPoints1
Ducks- Jackson LaCombeGoals1
- Alex KillornAssists2
- Alex KillornPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:50Olen Zellweger Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (7), Alex Killorn (6)2–3
- P319:55Troy Terry Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Chris Kreider (4), Cutter Gauthier (10)2–2
- P39:19Logan Cooley Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (12), Nick Schmaltz (12)2–1
- P218:14Dylan Guenther Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Nate Schmidt (5), John Marino (9)1–1
- P115:52Jackson LaCombe Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (2), Alex Killorn (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:52Jackson LaCombe Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (2), Alex Killorn (5)UTA 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 50% → 66% +16ANA 50% → 66%+16 pts
- P218:14Dylan Guenther Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Nate Schmidt (5), John Marino (9)UTA 1 – 1 ANA · UTA 27% → 50% +23UTA 27% → 50%+23 pts
- P39:19Logan Cooley Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (12), Nick Schmaltz (12)UTA 2 – 1 ANA · UTA 50% → 81% +31UTA 50% → 81%+31 pts
- P319:55Troy Terry Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Chris Kreider (4), Cutter Gauthier (10)UTA 2 – 2 ANA · ANA 0% → 50% +50ANA 0% → 50%+50 pts
- OT1:50Olen Zellweger Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (7), Alex Killorn (6)UTA 2 – 3 ANA · ANA 50% → 94% +44ANA 50% → 94%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 50%
- ML UTA -110 / ANA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- ANA: Elo 51.5%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- ANA -100
- UTA -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 3.3 – 3.3 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +2 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +10 Elo | ANA 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 53.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.72nd of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.56th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3255.8% | Shot share | 49.8%13th of 32 |
| 28th of 3287.9% | Save percentage | 89.9%16th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 18th of 325–6 | Road vs home | 5–12nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 15074th of 32 |
| 14th of 321502 | Elo rating | 147925th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–10 | 10–8 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 1–2 ANA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.
