New Jersey Devils at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Nico HischierGoals2
- Jesper BrattAssists3
- Nico HischierPoints3
Flyers- Tyson FoersterGoals2
- Noah CatesAssists2
- Noah CatesPoints3
Scoring summary
- P315:21Trevor Zegras Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (7), Christian Dvorak (8)3–6
- P313:27Nico Hischier Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Simon Nemec (9), Jesper Bratt (16)3–5
- P216:16Nico Hischier Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (11), Jesper Bratt (15)2–5
- P211:42Bobby Brink Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (11)1–5
- P112:32Tyson Foerster Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (8), Nick Seeler (3)1–4
- P112:15Tyson Foerster Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Cates (7), Travis Konecny (12)1–3
- P112:06Matvei Michkov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (10)1–2
- P19:00Noah Cates Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: none1–1
- P17:37Timo Meier Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (14), Nico Hischier (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:37Timo Meier Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (14), Nico Hischier (10)NJ 1 – 0 PHI · NJ 50% → 65% +15NJ 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P19:00Noah Cates Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: noneNJ 1 – 1 PHI · PHI 35% → 50% +15PHI 35% → 50%+15 pts
- P112:06Matvei Michkov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (10)NJ 1 – 2 PHI · PHI 50% → 66% +16PHI 50% → 66%+16 pts
- P112:15Tyson Foerster Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Cates (7), Travis Konecny (12)NJ 1 – 3 PHI · PHI 66% → 79% +13PHI 66% → 79%+13 pts
- P112:32Tyson Foerster Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (8), Nick Seeler (3)NJ 1 – 4 PHI · PHI 79% → 89% +10PHI 79% → 89%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 50%
- ML NJ -110 / PHI -110
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 49.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -100
- NJ -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.8 – 2.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +7 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +1 Elo | NJ 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 50.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.85th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.7% | Shot share | 49.5%17th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.4%23rd of 32 |
| 11th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 12th of 326–6 | Road vs home | 7–512th of 32 |
| 5th of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 150313th of 32 |
| 12th of 321506 | Elo rating | 146429th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–11 | 11–8 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 9–3 |
| Overs–unders | 10–10 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 4–4 PHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.