Detroit Red Wings at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- James van RiemsdykGoals1
- Moritz SeiderAssists2
- Moritz SeiderPoints2
Devils- Connor BrownGoals1
- Connor BrownAssists1
- Connor BrownPoints2
Scoring summary
- P310:12Dylan Larkin Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (17), Moritz Seider (13)3–4
- P28:38Connor Brown Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (8)2–4
- P21:30James van Riemsdyk Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Andrew Copp (8), Emmitt Finnie (6)2–3
- P119:04Cody Glass Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Luke Hughes (12), Connor Brown (2)1–3
- P117:58Nico Hischier Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (17), Timo Meier (10)1–2
- P116:33Alex DeBrincat Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Patrick Kane (9), Moritz Seider (12)1–1
- P112:54Timo Meier Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Stefan Noesen (2), Nico Hischier (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:54Timo Meier Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Stefan Noesen (2), Nico Hischier (11)DET 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 54% → 69% +16NJ 54% → 69%+16 pts
- P116:33Alex DeBrincat Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Patrick Kane (9), Moritz Seider (12)DET 1 – 1 NJ · DET 30% → 46% +16DET 30% → 46%+16 pts
- P117:58Nico Hischier Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (17), Timo Meier (10)DET 1 – 2 NJ · NJ 54% → 70% +16NJ 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P28:38Connor Brown Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (8)DET 2 – 4 NJ · NJ 72% → 86% +14NJ 72% → 86%+14 pts
- P310:12Dylan Larkin Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (17), Moritz Seider (13)DET 3 – 4 NJ · DET 3% → 17% +14DET 3% → 17%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 54%
- ML DET +110 / NJ -130
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- NJ: Elo 54.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NJ -119
- DET +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.6 – 2.9 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −1 | DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +32 Elo | NJ 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 56.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.018th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.2 | Margin | 0.014th of 32 |
| 8th of 3252.8% | Shot share | 51.9%9th of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 89.4%20th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 9th of 325–4 | Road vs home | 7–11st of 32 |
| 24th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 15076th of 32 |
| 16th of 321498 | Elo rating | 150215th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–10 | 9–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 3–9 |
| Underdog | 10–3 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–11 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–3 NJ in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.