Ottawa Senators at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Tim StutzleGoals1
- Tim StutzleAssists1
- Tim StutzlePoints2
Sharks- John KlingbergGoals1
- Alexander WennbergAssists1
- John KlingbergPoints1
Scoring summary
- P313:22Tim Stützle Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Cousins (2), Drake Batherson (13)3–2
- P218:38Fabian Zetterlund Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Kleven (2)2–2
- P27:47Barclay Goodrow Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Alexander Wennberg (7), Mario Ferraro (4)1–2
- P116:06John Klingberg Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (19), Will Smith (14)1–1
- P17:50Dylan Cozens Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Tim Stützle (10), Jake Sanderson (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:50Dylan Cozens Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Tim Stützle (10), Jake Sanderson (12)OTT 1 – 0 SJ · OTT 59% → 73% +14OTT 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P116:06John Klingberg Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (19), Will Smith (14)OTT 1 – 1 SJ · SJ 26% → 42% +15SJ 26% → 42%+15 pts
- P27:47Barclay Goodrow Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Alexander Wennberg (7), Mario Ferraro (4)OTT 1 – 2 SJ · SJ 43% → 62% +20SJ 43% → 62%+20 pts
- P218:38Fabian Zetterlund Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Kleven (2)OTT 2 – 2 SJ · OTT 32% → 56% +24OTT 32% → 56%+24 pts
- P313:22Tim Stützle Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Cousins (2), Drake Batherson (13)OTT 3 – 2 SJ · OTT 53% → 88% +35OTT 53% → 88%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 60%
- ML OTT -165 / SJ +140
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- OTT: Elo 58.2%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- OTT -149
- SJ +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.0 – 2.5 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1407 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +3 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +57 Elo | OTT 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 59.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.224th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.224th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.1% | Shot share | 43.4%32nd of 32 |
| 30th of 3287.5% | Save percentage | 90.4%10th of 32 |
| 11th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 20th of 324–5 | Road vs home | 6–621st of 32 |
| 30th of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 15092nd of 32 |
| 14th of 321503 | Elo rating | 140732nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–13 | 15–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–12 | — |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 15–6 |
| Overs–unders | 12–8 | 10–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 3–1 SJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.