Los Angeles Kings at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Anze KopitarGoals1
- Anze KopitarAssists1
- Anze KopitarPoints2
Sharks- Ty DellandreaGoals1
- Collin GrafAssists2
- Ty DellandreaPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Philipp Kurashev Goal Wrist Shot0–1
- P319:01Adrian Kempe Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (7), Anze Kopitar (8)3–3
- P217:04Philipp Kurashev Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (13), Macklin Celebrini (18)2–3
- P21:47Anze Kopitar Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Trevor Moore (3), Cody Ceci (5)2–2
- P119:50Ty Dellandrea Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Collin Graf (7), Dmitry Orlov (12)1–2
- P116:04Joel Armia Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P12:33Adam Gaudette Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Dellandrea (6), Collin Graf (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:04Joel Armia Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneLA 1 – 1 SJ · LA 42% → 59% +17LA 42% → 59%+17 pts
- P119:50Ty Dellandrea Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Collin Graf (7), Dmitry Orlov (12)LA 1 – 2 SJ · SJ 41% → 59% +18SJ 41% → 59%+18 pts
- P21:47Anze Kopitar Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Trevor Moore (3), Cody Ceci (5)LA 2 – 2 SJ · LA 40% → 59% +18LA 40% → 59%+18 pts
- P217:04Philipp Kurashev Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (13), Macklin Celebrini (18)LA 2 – 3 SJ · SJ 43% → 66% +23SJ 43% → 66%+23 pts
- P319:01Adrian Kempe Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (7), Anze Kopitar (8)LA 3 – 3 SJ · LA <1% → 51% +51LA <1% → 51%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- LA 61%
- ML LA -170 / SJ +145
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- LA: Elo 59.8%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- LA -154
- SJ +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.1 – 2.4 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1404 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +10 | LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +69 Elo | LA 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 58.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.022nd of 32 |
| 10th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.323rd of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.325th of 32 |
| 8th of 3252.6% | Shot share | 43.6%32nd of 32 |
| 17th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.4%10th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 1st of 329–4 | Road vs home | 5–624th of 32 |
| 6th of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 15083rd of 32 |
| 10th of 321527 | Elo rating | 140432nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–10 | 14–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | — |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 14–6 |
| Overs–unders | 9–11 | 9–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 6–3 SJ in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.