Ottawa Senators at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Drake BathersonGoals1
- Jordan SpenceAssists1
- Nick CousinsPoints1
Ducks- Beckett SenneckeGoals1
- Cutter GauthierAssists1
- Mason McTavishPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:02Drake Batherson Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Jake Sanderson (11), Jordan Spence (7)3–2
- P219:02Shane Pinto Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Stephen Halliday (1), David Perron (8)2–2
- P214:34Mason McTavish Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (5), Troy Terry (17)1–2
- P213:08Beckett Sennecke Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (12), Leo Carlsson (17)1–1
- P116:39Nick Cousins Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Jensen (4), Dylan Cozens (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:39Nick Cousins Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Jensen (4), Dylan Cozens (8)OTT 1 – 0 ANA · OTT 56% → 72% +16OTT 56% → 72%+16 pts
- P213:08Beckett Sennecke Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (12), Leo Carlsson (17)OTT 1 – 1 ANA · ANA 25% → 45% +20ANA 25% → 45%+20 pts
- P214:34Mason McTavish Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (5), Troy Terry (17)OTT 1 – 2 ANA · ANA 45% → 67% +22ANA 45% → 67%+22 pts
- P219:02Shane Pinto Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Stephen Halliday (1), David Perron (8)OTT 2 – 2 ANA · OTT 30% → 54% +24OTT 30% → 54%+24 pts
- P318:02Drake Batherson Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Jake Sanderson (11), Jordan Spence (7)OTT 3 – 2 ANA · OTT 51% → 98% +47OTT 51% → 98%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 57%
- ML OTT -145 / ANA +125
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- OTT: Elo 52.2%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- OTT -133
- ANA +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.5 – 3.0 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | ANA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −5 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · ANA: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +16 Elo | OTT 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 51.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.72nd of 32 |
| 25th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.120th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.66th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.2% | Shot share | 49.9%13th of 32 |
| 29th of 3287.2% | Save percentage | 90.0%15th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 24th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 7–11st of 32 |
| 30th of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 15069th of 32 |
| 14th of 321501 | Elo rating | 148324th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–12 | 10–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–11 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 12–7 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 1–3 ANA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.