Boston Bruins at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Morgan GeekieGoals2
- Hampus LindholmAssists2
- Morgan GeekiePoints2
Ducks- Radko GudasGoals1
- Mason McTavishAssists2
- Mason McTavishPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:25Ian Moore Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (16), Troy Terry (16)3–4
- P37:39Morgan Geekie Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: David Pastrnak (16), Hampus Lindholm (6)3–3
- P218:27Michael Eyssimont Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (5)2–3
- P213:47Ryan Strome Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Mason McTavish (10), Cutter Gauthier (11)1–3
- P114:58Morgan Geekie Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Hampus Lindholm (5), Pavel Zacha (12)1–2
- P16:29Radko Gudas Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (9), Beckett Sennecke (8)0–2
- P12:29Jansen Harkins Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Johnston (4), Nikita Nesterenko (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:29Jansen Harkins Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Johnston (4), Nikita Nesterenko (7)BOS 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 61% → 74% +13ANA 61% → 74%+13 pts
- P213:47Ryan Strome Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Mason McTavish (10), Cutter Gauthier (11)BOS 1 – 3 ANA · ANA 77% → 90% +13ANA 77% → 90%+13 pts
- P218:27Michael Eyssimont Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (5)BOS 2 – 3 ANA · BOS 8% → 22% +13BOS 8% → 22%+13 pts
- P37:39Morgan Geekie Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: David Pastrnak (16), Hampus Lindholm (6)BOS 3 – 3 ANA · BOS 17% → 45% +27BOS 17% → 45%+27 pts
- P316:25Ian Moore Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (16), Troy Terry (16)BOS 3 – 4 ANA · ANA 53% → 94% +41ANA 53% → 94%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 61%
- ML BOS +150 / ANA -175
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- ANA: Elo 55.0%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- ANA -159
- BOS +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.9 – 3.6 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +3 | BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +35 Elo | ANA 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 61.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.72nd of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 14th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.56th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.6% | Shot share | 50.1%13th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 89.9%16th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 18th of 324–5 | Road vs home | 6–12nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 321511 | Opponent Elo | 15076th of 32 |
| 21st of 321486 | Elo rating | 148124th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–6 | 10–9 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 14–4 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 12–9 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 1–4 ANA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.