Ottawa Senators at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Fabian ZetterlundGoals1
- Nikolas MatinpaloAssists1
- Fabian ZetterlundPoints1
Kings- Brandt ClarkeGoals1
- Joel EdmundsonAssists2
- Joel EdmundsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:50Brandt Clarke Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Joel Edmundson (9), Corey Perry (6)1–2
- P310:49Fabian Zetterlund Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolas Matinpalo (3), Nick Jensen (5)1–1
- P35:31Warren Foegele Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Joel Armia (6), Joel Edmundson (8)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P35:31Warren Foegele Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Joel Armia (6), Joel Edmundson (8)OTT 0 – 1 LA · LA 55% → 81% +26LA 55% → 81%+26 pts
- P310:49Fabian Zetterlund Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolas Matinpalo (3), Nick Jensen (5)OTT 1 – 1 LA · OTT 15% → 46% +31OTT 15% → 46%+31 pts
- P313:50Brandt Clarke Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Joel Edmundson (9), Corey Perry (6)OTT 1 – 2 LA · LA 53% → 89% +36LA 53% → 89%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- LA 60%
- ML OTT +140 / LA -165
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- LA: Elo 56.9%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- LA -149
- OTT +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.5 – 3.0 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +6 | OTT: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +48 Elo | LA 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 63.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.913th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.121st of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.4% | Shot share | 53.2%7th of 32 |
| 29th of 3287.5% | Save percentage | 90.0%15th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 10th of 325–5 | Road vs home | 1–732nd of 32 |
| 30th of 321489 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 32 |
| 13th of 321505 | Elo rating | 152110th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–14 | 10–12 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–13 | 3–10 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 12–9 | 10–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 1–4 LA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.