Boston Bruins at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Morgan GeekieGoals2
- Nikita ZadorovAssists2
- Morgan GeekiePoints2
Kings- Joel ArmiaGoals1
- Brian DumoulinAssists1
- Joel ArmiaPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:27Morgan Geekie Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (17), Nikita Zadorov (7)2–1
- P313:03Joel Armia Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Trevor Moore (4), Brian Dumoulin (3)1–1
- P38:01Morgan Geekie Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Steeves (1), Nikita Zadorov (6)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P38:01Morgan Geekie Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Steeves (1), Nikita Zadorov (6)BOS 1 – 0 LA · BOS 44% → 75% +31BOS 44% → 75%+31 pts
- P313:03Joel Armia Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Trevor Moore (4), Brian Dumoulin (3)BOS 1 – 1 LA · LA 17% → 54% +38LA 17% → 54%+38 pts
- OT2:27Morgan Geekie Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (17), Nikita Zadorov (7)BOS 2 – 1 LA · BOS 47% → 96% +48BOS 47% → 96%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- LA 62%
- ML BOS +155 / LA -185
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- LA: Elo 56.9%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- LA -166
- BOS +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.4 – 3.1 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | LA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +6 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +48 Elo | LA 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 65.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 63.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 32 |
| 17th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.119th of 32 |
| 26th of 3248.0% | Shot share | 52.9%7th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 89.9%18th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324–6 | Road vs home | 1–631st of 32 |
| 1st of 321511 | Opponent Elo | 150215th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321484 | Elo rating | 152410th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–6 | 10–11 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 3–9 |
| Underdog | 15–4 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 13–9 | 10–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–2 LA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.