Ottawa Senators at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Jake SandersonGoals1
- Jake SandersonAssists2
- Jake SandersonPoints3
Golden Knights- Mark StoneGoals1
- Shea TheodoreAssists1
- Mark StonePoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Shane Pinto Goal Wrist Shot1–0
- P36:40Mark Stone Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–3
- P22:09Jack Eichel Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Ivan Barbashev (12), Braeden Bowman (3)3–2
- P119:43Drake Batherson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (12), Jake Sanderson (14)3–1
- P116:52Brett Howden Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Mitch Marner (18), Shea Theodore (11)2–1
- P113:04Jake Sanderson Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (12), Tim Stützle (11)2–0
- P10:51Shane Pinto Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (13), Claude Giroux (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:04Jake Sanderson Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (12), Tim Stützle (11)OTT 2 – 0 VGK · OTT 56% → 72% +15OTT 56% → 72%+15 pts
- P116:52Brett Howden Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Mitch Marner (18), Shea Theodore (11)OTT 2 – 1 VGK · VGK 27% → 43% +16VGK 27% → 43%+16 pts
- P119:43Drake Batherson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (12), Jake Sanderson (14)OTT 3 – 1 VGK · OTT 58% → 74% +16OTT 58% → 74%+16 pts
- P22:09Jack Eichel Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Ivan Barbashev (12), Braeden Bowman (3)OTT 3 – 2 VGK · VGK 25% → 41% +16VGK 25% → 41%+16 pts
- P36:40Mark Stone Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneOTT 3 – 3 VGK · VGK 26% → 55% +29VGK 26% → 55%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 61%
- ML OTT +150 / VGK -175
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- VGK: Elo 58.5%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- VGK -159
- OTT +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.4 – 3.1 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +1 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · VGK: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +60 Elo | VGK 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 61.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.111th of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.6% | Shot share | 54.1%4th of 32 |
| 29th of 3287.7% | Save percentage | 89.2%22nd of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 32 |
| 18th of 325–6 | Road vs home | 5–624th of 32 |
| 28th of 321491 | Opponent Elo | 15068th of 32 |
| 15th of 321503 | Elo rating | 15279th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–14 | 7–15 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–13 | 4–14 |
| Underdog | 6–1 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 12–10 | 11–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 1–3 VGK in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.