Vegas Golden Knights at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Braeden BowmanGoals1
- Jack EichelAssists2
- Jack EichelPoints2
Ducks- Troy TerryGoals1
- Troy TerryAssists1
- Troy TerryPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:57Cutter Gauthier Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–4
- P213:50Troy Terry Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (18), Jackson LaCombe (8)3–3
- P117:59Tomas Hertl Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Jack Eichel (19)3–2
- P18:17Olen Zellweger Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (18), Jacob Trouba (9)2–2
- P17:43Jackson LaCombe Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (9), Cutter Gauthier (13)2–1
- P14:37Braeden Bowman Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (11), Zach Whitecloud (3)2–0
- P13:25Shea Theodore Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (18)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:25Shea Theodore Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (18)VGK 1 – 0 ANA · VGK 57% → 71% +14VGK 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P18:17Olen Zellweger Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (18), Jacob Trouba (9)VGK 2 – 2 ANA · ANA 29% → 43% +15ANA 29% → 43%+15 pts
- P117:59Tomas Hertl Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Jack Eichel (19)VGK 3 – 2 ANA · VGK 56% → 72% +16VGK 56% → 72%+16 pts
- P213:50Troy Terry Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (18), Jackson LaCombe (8)VGK 3 – 3 ANA · ANA 25% → 45% +20ANA 25% → 45%+20 pts
- OT3:57Cutter Gauthier Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVGK 3 – 4 ANA · ANA 49% → >99% +51ANA 49% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 57%
- ML VGK -145 / ANA +125
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- VGK: Elo 52.3%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- VGK -133
- ANA +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.5 – 3.0 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +4 | VGK: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +16 Elo | VGK 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 32 |
| 5th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.120th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.55th of 32 |
| 4th of 3254.1% | Shot share | 49.9%14th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 90.0%16th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 9th of 325–4 | Road vs home | 7–23rd of 32 |
| 7th of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 15069th of 32 |
| 7th of 321534 | Elo rating | 148125th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–13 | 11–10 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–12 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–11 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 5–4 ANA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.