Vegas Golden Knights at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Ivan BarbashevGoals1
- Jack EichelAssists1
- Ivan BarbashevPoints1
Mammoth- Logan CooleyGoals4
- Nate SchmidtAssists2
- Logan CooleyPoints5
Scoring summary
- P317:43Logan Cooley Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: none1–5
- P315:41Logan Cooley Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Ian Cole (8)1–4
- P34:19Logan Cooley Goal (11) Deflected, assists: none1–3
- P25:24Ivan Barbashev Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Jack Eichel (20), Braeden Bowman (2)1–2
- P116:11Logan Cooley Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (8), Nate Schmidt (9)0–2
- P114:54Dylan Guenther Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (8), Nate Schmidt (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:54Dylan Guenther Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (8), Nate Schmidt (8)VGK 0 – 1 UTA · UTA 50% → 66% +16UTA 50% → 66%+16 pts
- P116:11Logan Cooley Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (8), Nate Schmidt (9)VGK 0 – 2 UTA · UTA 67% → 80% +14UTA 67% → 80%+14 pts
- P25:24Ivan Barbashev Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Jack Eichel (20), Braeden Bowman (2)VGK 1 – 2 UTA · VGK 17% → 32% +15VGK 17% → 32%+15 pts
- P34:19Logan Cooley Goal (11) Deflected, assists: noneVGK 1 – 3 UTA · UTA 76% → 92% +16UTA 76% → 92%+16 pts
- P315:41Logan Cooley Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Ian Cole (8)VGK 1 – 4 UTA · UTA >99% → >99% +0UTA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 50%
- ML VGK -110 / UTA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- UTA: Elo 50.7%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- UTA -100
- VGK -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.8 – 2.8 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +4 | VGK: Carl Lindbom: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +5 Elo | UTA 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 52.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.017th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.3 | Margin | 0.017th of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.8% | Shot share | 54.8%3rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 88.0%27th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 10th of 325–5 | Road vs home | 6–34th of 32 |
| 4th of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 149522nd of 32 |
| 8th of 321532 | Elo rating | 149517th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–14 | 9–13 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 4–13 | 3–10 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 10–11 | 9–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 3–1 UTA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.
