Winnipeg Jets at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Mark ScheifeleAssists1
- Mark ScheifelePoints2
Canadiens- Oliver KapanenGoals1
- Alexandre TexierAssists1
- Oliver KapanenPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Cole Caufield Goal Snap Shot0–1
- P214:03Oliver Kapanen Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (14), Alexandre Texier (3)2–2
- P211:53Kyle Connor Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (11), Mark Scheifele (20)2–1
- P29:59Juraj Slafkovský Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (15), Nick Suzuki (23)1–1
- P118:35Mark Scheifele Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (18), Dylan DeMelo (10)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:35Mark Scheifele Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (18), Dylan DeMelo (10)WPG 1 – 0 MTL · WPG 54% → 71% +16WPG 54% → 71%+16 pts
- P29:59Juraj Slafkovský Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (15), Nick Suzuki (23)WPG 1 – 1 MTL · MTL 27% → 46% +19MTL 27% → 46%+19 pts
- P211:53Kyle Connor Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (11), Mark Scheifele (20)WPG 2 – 1 MTL · WPG 54% → 73% +20WPG 54% → 73%+20 pts
- P214:03Oliver Kapanen Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (14), Alexandre Texier (3)WPG 2 – 2 MTL · MTL 26% → 47% +21MTL 26% → 47%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 55%
- ML WPG -135 / MTL +114
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- WPG: Elo 56.4%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- WPG -123
- MTL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.4 – 3.1 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | MTL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −9 | −2 | WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +45 Elo | WPG 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 50.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.732nd of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.326th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.4% | Shot share | 47.2%26th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 87.5%32nd of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 13th of 327–7 | Road vs home | 6–722nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 321488 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 32 |
| 6th of 321540 | Elo rating | 148322nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–14 | 9–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–11 | 2–12 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 14–11 | 19–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 2–2 MTL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.