Winnipeg Jets at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Kyle ConnorGoals1
- Josh MorrisseyAssists1
- Kyle ConnorPoints1
Sabres- Josh NorrisGoals2
- Josh DoanAssists2
- Josh NorrisPoints3
Scoring summary
- P30:41Josh Norris Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Zach Benson (11), Rasmus Dahlin (16)1–5
- P212:49Alex Tuch Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Doan (10)1–4
- P211:26Kyle Connor Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (19), Mark Scheifele (19)1–3
- P114:54Josh Norris Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Tage Thompson (10), Zach Benson (10)0–3
- P13:01Bowen Byram Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (8), Conor Timmins (6)0–2
- P12:46Jason Zucker Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Josh Doan (9), Josh Norris (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:46Jason Zucker Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Josh Doan (9), Josh Norris (1)WPG 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 51% → 66% +14BUF 51% → 66%+14 pts
- P13:01Bowen Byram Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (8), Conor Timmins (6)WPG 0 – 2 BUF · BUF 66% → 78% +13BUF 66% → 78%+13 pts
- P114:54Josh Norris Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Tage Thompson (10), Zach Benson (10)WPG 0 – 3 BUF · BUF 81% → 90% +9BUF 81% → 90%+9 pts
- P211:26Kyle Connor Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (19), Mark Scheifele (19)WPG 1 – 3 BUF · WPG 5% → 14% +9WPG 5% → 14%+9 pts
- P212:49Alex Tuch Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Doan (10)WPG 1 – 4 BUF · BUF 86% → 95% +9BUF 86% → 95%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 51%
- ML WPG -105 / BUF -115
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- BUF: Elo 45.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BUF -104
- WPG +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.2 – 3.3 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −3 | WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +34 Elo | WPG 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 50.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.426th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 24th of 3247.6% | Shot share | 48.6%21st of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 89.7%17th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–58th of 32 |
| 13th of 327–6 | Road vs home | 8–715th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321488 | Opponent Elo | 15091st of 32 |
| 5th of 321546 | Elo rating | 147228th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–13 | 11–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–11 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders | 14–10 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 3–1 BUF in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.