New Jersey Devils at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Arseny GritsyukGoals2
- Brenden DillonAssists1
- Arseny GritsyukPoints2
SabresScoring summary
- P316:49Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (3)5–0
- P35:22Paul Cotter Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Brenden Dillon (6)4–0
- P31:39Brenden Dillon Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Brown (3), Paul Cotter (4)3–0
- P27:45Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (2), Dawson Mercer (9)2–0
- P112:07Nico Hischier Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Timo Meier (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:07Nico Hischier Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Timo Meier (12)NJ 1 – 0 BUF · NJ 50% → 66% +16NJ 50% → 66%+16 pts
- P27:45Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (2), Dawson Mercer (9)NJ 2 – 0 BUF · NJ 69% → 84% +15NJ 69% → 84%+15 pts
- P31:39Brenden Dillon Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Brown (3), Paul Cotter (4)NJ 3 – 0 BUF · NJ 91% → 98% +7NJ 91% → 98%+7 pts
- P35:22Paul Cotter Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Brenden Dillon (6)NJ 4 – 0 BUF · NJ 99% → >99% +1NJ 99% → >99%+1 pts
- P316:49Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (3)NJ 5 – 0 BUF · NJ >99% → >99% +0NJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 50%
- ML NJ -110 / BUF -110
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- BUF: Elo 50.5%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- BUF -100
- NJ -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.8 – 2.8 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −2 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +3 Elo | BUF 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 53.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.211th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.425th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.4% | Shot share | 47.5%26th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 90.0%17th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 17th of 326–7 | Road vs home | 8–610th of 32 |
| 9th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 15083rd of 32 |
| 14th of 321506 | Elo rating | 147527th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–14 | 10–13 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–11 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders | 12–11 | 13–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 4–2 BUF in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.