Winnipeg Jets at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Nino NiederreiterGoals2
- Dylan SambergAssists3
- Dylan SambergPoints3
Predators- Luke EvangelistaGoals1
- Erik HaulaAssists2
- Luke EvangelistaPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:39Nino Niederreiter Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Alex Iafallo (5), Dylan Samberg (3)5–2
- P39:37Kyle Connor Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Luke Schenn (4), Gabriel Vilardi (10)4–2
- P32:45Luke Evangelista Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Erik Haula (11), Roman Josi (6)3–2
- P217:02Nick Blankenburg Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (13), Erik Haula (10)3–1
- P212:18Cole Perfetti Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (2), Jonathan Toews (6)3–0
- P119:06Nino Niederreiter Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Schenn (3), Dylan Samberg (2)2–0
- P10:47Gabriel Vilardi Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (18), Dylan Samberg (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:47Gabriel Vilardi Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (18), Dylan Samberg (1)WPG 1 – 0 NSH · WPG 54% → 68% +14WPG 54% → 68%+14 pts
- P119:06Nino Niederreiter Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Schenn (3), Dylan Samberg (2)WPG 2 – 0 NSH · WPG 70% → 83% +13WPG 70% → 83%+13 pts
- P212:18Cole Perfetti Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (2), Jonathan Toews (6)WPG 3 – 0 NSH · WPG 87% → 95% +8WPG 87% → 95%+8 pts
- P32:45Luke Evangelista Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Erik Haula (11), Roman Josi (6)WPG 3 – 2 NSH · NSH 8% → 23% +15NSH 8% → 23%+15 pts
- P39:37Kyle Connor Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Luke Schenn (4), Gabriel Vilardi (10)WPG 4 – 2 NSH · WPG 82% → 96% +14WPG 82% → 96%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 54%
- ML WPG -130 / NSH +110
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- WPG: Elo 58.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- WPG -119
- NSH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.9 – 2.6 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | NSH and WPG on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −10 | −7 | WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +62 Elo | WPG 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 52.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.627th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −1.032nd of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.3% | Shot share | 50.5%14th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 87.8%28th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 11th of 326–6 | Road vs home | 4–928th of 32 |
| 31st of 321490 | Opponent Elo | 150411th of 32 |
| 6th of 321542 | Elo rating | 144230th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–13 | 10–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–11 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders | 13–10 | 11–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 5–4 NSH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.