Colorado Avalanche at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Brent BurnsGoals1
- Brock NelsonAssists1
- Brent BurnsPoints1
PredatorsScoring summary
- P319:09Jack Drury Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (11), Parker Kelly (5)3–0
- P318:25Nathan MacKinnon Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (6), Gabriel Landeskog (5)2–0
- P10:15Brent Burns Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:15Brent Burns Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCOL 1 – 0 NSH · COL 67% → 79% +12COL 67% → 79%+12 pts
- P318:25Nathan MacKinnon Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (6), Gabriel Landeskog (5)COL 2 – 0 NSH · COL 99% → >99% +1COL 99% → >99%+1 pts
- P319:09Jack Drury Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (11), Parker Kelly (5)COL 3 – 0 NSH · COL >99% → 100% +0COL >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- COL 67%
- ML COL -225 / NSH +190
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- COL: Elo 63.0%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- COL -201
- NSH +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.7 – 2.8 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1578 | 1441 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | 0 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +92 Elo | COL 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 66.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 65.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.2 | Goals scored | 2.531st of 32 |
| 1st of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.526th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.7 | Margin | −1.032nd of 32 |
| 1st of 3256.8% | Shot share | 49.6%15th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 88.2%27th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Road vs home | 4–727th of 32 |
| 18th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 32 |
| 1st of 321578 | Elo rating | 144131st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–8 | 9–11 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–8 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 9–11 | 8–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–4 NSH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.