Nashville Predators at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Steven StamkosGoals1
- Steven StamkosAssists1
- Steven StamkosPoints2
Blackhawks- Ryan GreeneGoals1
- Sam RinzelAssists1
- Teuvo TeravainenPoints1
Scoring summary
- P310:28Teuvo Teravainen Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Kaiser (4), Frank Nazar (11)4–3
- P37:15Ryan O'Reilly Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (12), Nick Perbix (2)4–2
- P216:27Luke Evangelista Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (3), Ryan O'Reilly (10)3–2
- P215:14Ryan Greene Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Moore (4)2–2
- P27:18Steven Stamkos Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Nick Blankenburg (7), Fedor Svechkov (2)2–1
- P21:46Matthew Wood Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Hague (3)1–1
- P119:10Ryan Donato Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Rinzel (7), Andre Burakovsky (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:10Ryan Donato Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Rinzel (7), Andre Burakovsky (9)NSH 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 47% → 65% +17CHI 47% → 65%+17 pts
- P21:46Matthew Wood Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Hague (3)NSH 1 – 1 CHI · NSH 35% → 53% +18NSH 35% → 53%+18 pts
- P27:18Steven Stamkos Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Nick Blankenburg (7), Fedor Svechkov (2)NSH 2 – 1 CHI · NSH 52% → 71% +19NSH 52% → 71%+19 pts
- P215:14Ryan Greene Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Moore (4)NSH 2 – 2 CHI · CHI 27% → 48% +21CHI 27% → 48%+21 pts
- P216:27Luke Evangelista Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (3), Ryan O'Reilly (10)NSH 3 – 2 CHI · NSH 52% → 74% +22NSH 52% → 74%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 53%
- ML NSH -125 / CHI +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- NSH: Elo 46.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NSH -114
- CHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.8 – 2.7 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1439 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −15 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.38 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +22 Elo | CHI 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 51.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.111th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.1 | Margin | +0.39th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.5% | Shot share | 45.4%31st of 32 |
| 29th of 3287.8% | Save percentage | 90.9%7th of 32 |
| 31st of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 30th of 322–6 | Road vs home | 5–724th of 32 |
| 4th of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 150215th of 32 |
| 30th of 321439 | Elo rating | 143931st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–13 | 19–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | — |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 19–4 |
| Overs–unders | 10–13 | 9–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 7–1 CHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.