Florida Panthers at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- A.J. GreerGoals2
- Carter VerhaegheAssists2
- A.J. GreerPoints3
Predators- Filip ForsbergGoals1
- Tyson JostAssists1
- Filip ForsbergPoints1
Scoring summary
- P312:49Carter Verhaeghe Goal (3) Backhand, assists: A.J. Greer (3)8–3
- P38:33Sam Reinhart Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (6), Aaron Ekblad (5)7–3
- P34:52A.J. Greer Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (10), Uvis Balinskis (4)6–3
- P32:11Nick Blankenburg Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Michael Bunting (7), Erik Haula (8)5–3
- P21:24Gustav Forsling Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (9), Brad Marchand (12)5–2
- P115:46Sam Bennett Goal (5) Deflected, assists: none4–2
- P111:31Jesper Boqvist Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Forsling (11), Sam Reinhart (8)3–2
- P110:32Fedor Svechkov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ozzy Wiesblatt (3), Tyson Jost (2)2–2
- P16:52Filip Forsberg Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (9), Roman Josi (5)2–1
- P15:42Evan Rodrigues Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Uvis Balinskis (3), Sam Reinhart (7)2–0
- P10:11A.J. Greer Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (9), Seth Jones (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:11A.J. Greer Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (9), Seth Jones (10)FLA 1 – 0 NSH · FLA 55% → 69% +14FLA 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P16:52Filip Forsberg Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (9), Roman Josi (5)FLA 2 – 1 NSH · NSH 18% → 30% +12NSH 18% → 30%+12 pts
- P110:32Fedor Svechkov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ozzy Wiesblatt (3), Tyson Jost (2)FLA 2 – 2 NSH · NSH 30% → 45% +15NSH 30% → 45%+15 pts
- P111:31Jesper Boqvist Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Forsling (11), Sam Reinhart (8)FLA 3 – 2 NSH · FLA 55% → 70% +15FLA 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P115:46Sam Bennett Goal (5) Deflected, assists: noneFLA 4 – 2 NSH · FLA 70% → 83% +13FLA 70% → 83%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 55%
- ML FLA -135 / NSH +115
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- FLA: Elo 56.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- FLA -124
- NSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.9 – 2.6 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −28 | 0 | FLA: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.70 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +47 Elo | FLA 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 56.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.332nd of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.527th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.1 | Margin | −1.132nd of 32 |
| 8th of 3253.1% | Shot share | 50.0%14th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 88.5%25th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–832nd of 32 |
| 27th of 323–6 | Road vs home | 4–828th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 150414th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321548 | Elo rating | 143831st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–15 | 9–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–14 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 10–11 | 8–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 3–1 NSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.