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Edmonton Oilers at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast

FinalNHL Net, Scripps Sports

Away

Oilers

10-9-5

6–3

at

Home

Panthers

11-9-1

EDM 47%FLA 53%

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Amerant Bank Arena · NHL Net, Scripps Sports

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.

FLA favored EDM favored9 scoring plays
P1P2P3FLA50%EDM

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Oilers

Scoring summary

  • P317:47Matt Savoie Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Janmark (2), Mattias Ekholm (8)6–3
  • P317:20Connor McDavid Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (7)5–3
  • P213:30Sam Reinhart Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Anton Lundell (12), Brad Marchand (11)4–3
  • P210:04Mackie Samoskevich Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Uvis Balinskis (2), Sam Bennett (4)4–2
  • P26:45Vasily Podkolzin Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (14), Evan Bouchard (17)4–1
  • P113:58Mattias Ekholm Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (5), Darnell Nurse (5)3–1
  • P17:06Jack Roslovic Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (16)2–1
  • P16:30Anton Lundell Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (8), Seth Jones (9)1–1
  • P10:25Jack Roslovic Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (15)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P10:25Jack Roslovic Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (15)EDM 1 – 0 FLA · EDM 47% → 61% +14
  2. P16:30Anton Lundell Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (8), Seth Jones (9)EDM 1 – 1 FLA · FLA 38% → 53% +15
  3. P17:06Jack Roslovic Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (16)EDM 2 – 1 FLA · EDM 47% → 62% +15
  4. P113:58Mattias Ekholm Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (5), Darnell Nurse (5)EDM 3 – 1 FLA · EDM 64% → 78% +14
  5. P213:30Sam Reinhart Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Anton Lundell (12), Brad Marchand (11)EDM 4 – 3 FLA · FLA 15% → 31% +16

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Panthers 53%

Toss-upMiss
EDM 47%FLA 53%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
FLA 53%
ML EDM +105 / FLA -125
Pre-line forecast
FLA 56%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
FLA 61%
Ratings vs. market
+7.4 pts
FLA: Elo 60.6%, market 53.2%
Fair odds
FLA -114
EDM +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
EDM 2.7 – 2.8 FLA
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorEDMFLAWhy
Team rating15271553Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−6+7EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsFLA +75 EloFLA 60.6%
Market-implied ratingsFLA 55.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastFLA 56.1%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastFLA 53.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers compared, with each team's league rank
EDMStatFLA
23rd of 323.0Goals scored3.025th of 32
28th of 323.7Goals allowed3.016th of 32
29th of 32−0.7Margin0.015th of 32
9th of 3252.2%Shot share53.0%6th of 32
32nd of 3287.1%Save percentage89.5%20th of 32
27th of 323–7Last 106–48th of 32
28th of 324–11Road vs home8–34th of 32
18th of 321499Opponent Elo149425th of 32
9th of 321527Elo rating15533rd of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

OilersPanthers
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonEDMFLA
Puck line7–166–14
Last 104–64–6
Favorite3–144–13
Underdog4–22–1
Overs–unders13–109–11
Overs–unders, last 106–45–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

EDM 5–12 FLA in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.