Colorado Avalanche at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors CHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Cale MakarGoals1
- Tristen NielsenAssists1
- Cale MakarPoints1
BlackhawksScoring summary
- P218:21Cale Makar Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Tristen Nielsen (1)1–0
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P218:21Cale Makar Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Tristen Nielsen (1)COL 1 – 0 CHI · COL 60% → 80% +21COL 60% → 80%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- COL 66%
- ML COL -215 / CHI +180
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- COL: Elo 60.0%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- COL -191
- CHI +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.7 – 2.8 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1581 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | COL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +10 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +71 Elo | COL 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 61.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.1 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 2.914th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.8 | Margin | +0.47th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.1% | Shot share | 44.6%31st of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.3% | Save percentage | 91.0%5th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–4 | Road vs home | 5–520th of 32 |
| 21st of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 32 |
| 1st of 321581 | Elo rating | 144330th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–8 | 17–4 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 12–8 | — |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 17–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–12 | 8–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 5–3 CHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.